Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.004054 0.004261 0.004473 0.004707 0.004958 0.005220 0.005513
2025-01-12 0.003693 0.004004 0.004336 0.004719 0.005149 0.005621 0.006179
2025-01-19 0.003354 0.003706 0.004094 0.004553 0.005087 0.005690 0.006429
2025-01-26 0.003200 0.003594 0.004037 0.004575 0.005216 0.005963 0.006909
2025-02-02 0.003136 0.003574 0.004076 0.004700 0.005464 0.006378 0.007571
2025-02-09 0.002985 0.003440 0.003971 0.004643 0.005480 0.006505 0.007878
2025-02-16 0.002879 0.003353 0.003913 0.004634 0.005551 0.006697 0.008269
2025-02-23 0.002774 0.003260 0.003844 0.004605 0.005590 0.006844 0.008606
2025-03-02 0.002717 0.003223 0.003838 0.004654 0.005727 0.007122 0.009128
2025-03-09 0.002626 0.003139 0.003770 0.004617 0.005747 0.007242 0.009437
2025-03-16 0.002540 0.003058 0.003701 0.004574 0.005757 0.007346 0.009723
2025-03-23 0.002446 0.002963 0.003610 0.004497 0.005714 0.007372 0.009896
2025-03-30 0.002359 0.002875 0.003527 0.004431 0.005687 0.007423 0.010116
2025-04-06 0.002307 0.002833 0.003503 0.004443 0.005766 0.007629 0.010581
2025-04-13 0.002195 0.002706 0.003363 0.004290 0.005608 0.007483 0.010494
2025-04-20 0.002156 0.002675 0.003348 0.004310 0.005695 0.007698 0.010981
2025-04-27 0.002155 0.002695 0.003402 0.004426 0.005925 0.008135 0.011853
2025-05-04 0.002093 0.002630 0.003338 0.004373 0.005903 0.008188 0.012097
2025-05-11 0.002051 0.002590 0.003308 0.004365 0.005947 0.008345 0.012523
2025-05-18 0.002004 0.002543 0.003265 0.004338 0.005961 0.008453 0.012871
2025-05-25 0.001984 0.002532 0.003272 0.004383 0.006085 0.008741 0.013553
2025-06-01 0.001938 0.002484 0.003226 0.004349 0.006085 0.008827 0.013877
2025-06-08 0.001893 0.002436 0.003179 0.004310 0.006076 0.008897 0.014175